This section explain how tipstronic models work and how to best use them.
How do I use tipstronic tips?
Tipstronic does not advise who to back or lay as usual tipsters do. Whether you should back or lay depends on the odds you manage to get. A profitable strategy should be built on backing runners whose odds are overstated and lay the others. Simple…
Tipstronic focuses on refining the estimate of the winning probabilities to help you spot the best mispricing opportunities. They often (yet not always) arise on betting exchanges where odds volatility is high.
What is the expected return of a bet ?
Assume a dog has a probability of 20% to win and is offered at 6 (decimal odds). If you were to repeat this bet a million times with £1 stake each time you would earn £5 (£6 minus the £1 stake), 20% of the time, and lose £1, 80% of the time. On average, you would earn £0.20 per race.
How does tipstronic calculate the wining probability?
We combine two inputs:
Market consensus: This is what “the market” thinks the probability is. It can be estimated before the race with bookmakers odds. If someone offers to back a runner at 5 (decimal odds), they implicitly account for a 20% winning probability. The expected return of this bet would be 0 (the runner would pay £4 each time it wins 20% of the time and it will cost you £1 each time it loses 80%, so the average profit would be 4 x 0.2- 0.8 = 0). Of course, estimating the market consensus is a little more complex as bookmakers expect to earn money, and, in this scenario, they would therefore usually offer you to back this runner for less than 5.
Quartz score: This is a score comprised between 0 and 1 that tells you how strong a runner is. The best possible score is 1. It is based on tipstronic’s proprietary data and algorithms. We believe strongly in a disciplined and scientific approach to earn money. Our Quartz score depends on how good a runner is compared to his competitors in the race (which is why the score of a dog can change from one race to another).
These two inputs are combined in Radar which is tipstronic’s proprietary model to estimate the true winning probability.
What is the fair price?
Assume a dog has a winning probability P. £1 invested millions of times on this race (if it was ever possible to repeat exactly the same race configuration) would make you earn odds-1 P% of the time and lose 1£ (1-P)% of the time. The fair price is the price such that your expected return is 0. It is the inverse of odds when odds are decimal: when odds are decimal fair_price = 1 / odds.
How should I use tipstronic tips to earn money?
Our suggested approach is to back dogs above a given Quartz score threshold (or lay below a given threshold) when the expected return is high enough. We have made a back testing tool available to help you decide the parameters that best suit you. These should be decided on how many times you want to bet each day, the return on investment (ROI) you expect and your risk profile. We do not think that the best strategy necessarily achieves the best ROI. High ROI strategies are often focused on a few bets only and some punters may prefer betting more often to risk smaller stakes on a higher number of bets (as it diversifies risk and also offers the possibility to invest more money on the strategy) even if the ROI is lower. Ultimately, it’s up to you.
How can I implement my strategy?
Best prices are often achieved early. One possibility is to offer a back or lay position early enough on exchanges. You take the risk to be matched at lower odds than the starting price (SP) but can also earn more. 10 to 30 minutes before the start of a race is often a good time to snap good odds on exchanges. You might also occasionally spot good odds with bookmakers (but this will happen less often). Another way to place bets is via a “limit SP” where you back (or lay) at the SP only if the SP happens to be higher (resp. lower) than a given threshold.