Rain is well known for affecting greyhound races. As discussed in this post, rainy weather tends to favour heavier dogs. They are indeed more muscular and better at going through mud. The key is to know your track and what part of it is affected more when it’s raining. Water tends to generally stay on the inside track and therefore the outside traps are favourable in wet conditions, as they allow the greyhound the potential to run on a better track.
In our analysis we have compared the winning probabilities of each trap in dry weather conditions (being no rain in the 12 hours before the race) and in wet weather conditions (being more than 1 mm of rain in the 12 hours before the race).
As evidenced below, trap number 1 sees its winning probability reduce by 0.6%, whilst trap numbers 3 to 6 have winning probabilities increase by 0.2% to 0.3%. Therefore, rainy conditions tend to favour outside traps on average.
Comparison on trap winning probabilities 2014-2019 on UK racetracks
The graph above is an average across all UK racetracks between 2014 and 2019. The effect of rain will vary widely from one track to another.
As can be seen from the graph below the effect of the rain on the inside traps at Swindon is more pronounced than the average UK track. Based on the below, trap number 1’s winning probability reduces by 2% historically in wet weather at Swindon racecourse.
Comparison of trap winning probabilities at Swindon racecourse
It is worth noting that it seems the rain can have the opposite effect on some racetracks and favour the inside traps. For instance, at Nottingham, as shown in the graph below:
Comparison of trap winning probabilities at Nottingham racecourse
In conclusion, although the rain tends to favour the outside traps in general, knowing your track and how the weather impacts winning probabilities on each trap is key. Winning is all about the detail.
