This section explains how to get started with Tipstronic
Where do I start ?
The first step is to build your strategy and test it with our back testing tool. We have written a blog article that explains how our models work.
In this first step you should define two things:
- The quartz score above which you want to back. (or below which you want to lay). In this step you focus on the good dogs to back or lay the ones that are least likely to win.
- The desired expected return. In this step you focus on how profitable your bets should be. Do you prefer a high return strategy which often comes with higher risk or the opposite? Tipstronic lets you choose!
I have my strategy. How do I implement it?
Tipstronic provides two key numbers:
- Quartz: how strong a runner is. Premium members receive them in the morning. They don’t change during the day unless a runner is changed. In this case we update Quartz around 30 minutes before the race.
- Radar probability: that is the probability a runner will win the race. We provide it around 30 minutes before the race. We can provide the Radar probability after having watched the market, bookmakers odds level, how they changed and mixed this information with Quartz.
I have decided to back when Quartz is above 0.52 and at minimum 30% target return. How do I know at what odds I should back?
The odds corresponding to a given expected return are calculated with the following formulas once we know the Radar probability:
If you back:
decimal odds = 1 + (1 + Exp Return – Radar) / Radar
If you lay:
decimal odds = 1 + (1 – Exp Return – Radar) / Radar
Do you have a tool to do these maths for me?
Yep! We do. You can set your desired Expected Return in the Free and Premium tables to quickly work out the corresponding odds on the back and lay sides.
Where do these formulas come from?
Well… we need a bit of maths…
This article explains where the following formula comes from. Let’s use it in the case of a Back bet:
Expected return = Radar * (decimal_odds – 1) – (1 – Radar)
So by reversing the terms:
Decimal_odds = 1 + (1 + Exp Return – Radar) / Radar
Assume we set ourselves a minimum expected return of 20% and Radar is 30%. In this case the minimum odds we should accept to back at are 4. That is calculated as: 1 + (1 + 0.2 – 0.3) / 0.3
I get your formulas and I love your tool but I run a bot. How can I access your data in real time?
Get in touch with us. We can deliver our data in a machine friendly way so you can let your bot do your job! No need to connect to Tipstronic anymore. We will miss you 🙂